| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 38° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 45° to 46° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 39° to 40° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 43° to 44° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 47° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 41° to 42° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest air temperature recorded in Minneapolis on March 13, 2026 will be and allows participants to trade on near-term weather outcomes. Such markets matter because daily high temperatures influence transportation, energy demand, agriculture, and local operations.
Minneapolis in mid‑March sits in a transitional season with frequent swings between winter and early spring weather driven by large‑scale jet stream patterns and occasional Arctic intrusions. Local conditions such as snow cover, cloudiness, and the arrival or absence of a warm air mass can produce very different highs from one year to the next; longer‑term climate trends have raised average temperatures but day‑to‑day variability remains large. The market will settle to a specific observational definition and data source stated in the contract.
Market prices (odds) represent traders' aggregated expectations based on forecasts, observations, and risk preferences and will change as new information arrives. Interpret those prices as a summary of current beliefs, not as a guarantee of the realized temperature.
The market will use the maximum air temperature recorded during the local calendar date of March 13, 2026 at the official observation site specified in the contract; the contract also defines units, measurement height, and any rounding conventions—check the market description for those specifics.
The contract’s settlement source will name the authoritative station or dataset (for example, an NWS/NOAA official station); if you do not see a station listed on the event page, consult the detailed market rules or platform settlement policy for the designated source.
The event page currently lists the close time as TBD, so trading will end at the posted closing time once it is set; settlement typically occurs after the official observational data for the specified date are published and any final quality control is applied—refer to the market page for exact settlement timing.
Mid‑March in Minneapolis is historically volatile, with transitions between wintry and milder conditions driven by synoptic patterns; understanding climatological variability and recent weeks' conditions (snow cover, trends, and model forecasts) helps contextualize likely outcomes without predicting a precise value.
Settlement will follow the platform’s published contingency rules: commonly that means using the final official quality‑controlled dataset, or applying a predefined backup source or nearest suitable station if data are missing; check the market’s dispute and fallback procedures in the event description.