| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45° to 46° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 47° to 48° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 49° to 50° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 51° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 42° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 43° to 44° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest air temperature recorded in Minneapolis will be on March 12, 2026; it matters for weather-sensitive planning, risk management, and traders betting on temperature outcomes.
March in Minneapolis is a transitional month with high variability driven by late-winter cold snaps and early spring warmth; individual days can differ widely from recent weeks. Long-term climate trends shift baseline expectations, but synoptic weather patterns dominate day-to-day outcomes for a single calendar date like March 12, 2026.
Market odds reflect the collective expectation of participants given available information and change as forecasts and observations update; treat them as a dynamic signal to combine with meteorological data rather than a definitive forecast.
The event page lists the official close time (currently TBD); resolution occurs after the full local calendar day of March 12, 2026, using the data source and settlement rules specified on the market page.
The market's settlement terms specify the official observing station or dataset to be used (for example, the Minneapolis official climate station or a designated NWS dataset); consult the event page for the named source that will be used for settlement.
Resolution is based on the maximum air temperature reported by the designated official source for the local calendar day; the exact measurement definition (e.g., instantaneous reading used by the reporting authority) is governed by the authority identified on the event page.
The platform follows its adjudication and dispute procedures: they typically use the official corrected archive or an alternate specified source and settle according to the market's rules; check the event page and exchange terms for the precise contingency procedures.
Monitor updated NWS forecasts, high-resolution model runs, snow-cover analyses, surface observations around Minneapolis, frontal timing, and any watches/warnings; changes in these indicators in the 48–72 hours before the date will most affect expected outcomes.