| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 38° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $10K | Trade → |
| 41° to 42° | 90% | 90¢ | 91¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
| 39° to 40° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| 43° to 44° | 8% | 9¢ | 54¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| 47° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 45° to 46° | 1% | 0¢ | 4¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest air temperature recorded in Minneapolis on March 11, 2026 will be; it matters because daily temperature extremes are important for energy demand, public safety, and short‑term climate tracking. Traders use this event to express views on the day‑ahead weather outcome and hedge or speculate on near‑term temperature risk.
Minneapolis in early March sits in a transition season where large swings are common: late‑winter cold outbreaks, spring warm spells, and snow cover can all change rapidly. Historically, early March highs in the Twin Cities can vary widely from well below freezing to unseasonably mild days, so synoptic setup and local conditions matter more than seasonal averages.
Market prices reflect collective judgment about which of the six discrete outcomes will match the recorded maximum temperature on that calendar day; interpret prices as real‑time sentiment about the expected outcome rather than fixed forecasts. Check the market page and resolution rules for the exact outcome labels and settlement procedures.
The outcome is determined by the official meteorological observation specified in the market rules (typically the National Weather Service or other designated station for Minneapolis); the highest recorded air temperature for the calendar day at that official station will determine which outcome wins.
Resolution uses the local calendar day for Minneapolis; because DST is in effect in March 2026, that local day runs from 00:00 to 23:59 local daylight time. Consult the market's resolution text for any station‑specific or UTC conversion details.
Each of the six outcomes corresponds to a specific temperature range or exact value as defined on the market page; traders should view the market description or contract labels to see the precise bins before trading.
Settlement occurs after the official observation for March 11 is published and any verification period in the market rules has passed; the market page will display the resolved outcome and the data source used for settlement when available.
Rapid changes in model guidance, the track/timing of a frontal system, late snowfall or melt changing surface conditions, and updated NWS forecasts or warning products can all move trader expectations in the two days prior to the event.