| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 44° or below | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $10K | Trade → |
| 45° to 46° | 2% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| 47° to 48° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 49° to 50° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 53° or above | 3% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 51° to 52° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
This market asks which of several outcome buckets will contain the highest temperature recorded in Minneapolis on March 10, 2026. It matters because single‑day temperature extremes affect local energy demand, transit, and short‑term weather risk assessments.
March in Minneapolis sits in a high‑variability season where late‑winter storms and early spring warm spells both occur, so day‑to‑day highs can swing widely. Long‑term climate trends have increased the frequency of unusually warm days, but any given March date remains strongly driven by the synoptic setup in the days leading up to it.
Prediction market prices reflect the collective expectations of traders given available forecasts and information; they update as new observations and model runs arrive. Treat them as a real‑time aggregation of beliefs, not guarantees—the market outcome depends on the official temperature observation used for settlement.
The market will settle to the official temperature reported in the contract's settlement rules; that is typically the National Weather Service or an official ASOS/AWOS station designated in the market description—check the KALSHI event page for the exact station used for settlement.
The event page lists the market close time (currently TBD); outcome settlement occurs after the official daily observation period ends and the designated agency publishes its daily value—check the contract for the settlement window and any post‑event confirmation timing.
The six outcomes partition the possible highest‑temperature values on that date into ordered categories; each outcome corresponds to a specific temperature range defined on the event page, so traders should review those thresholds before trading.
Operational guidance (GFS, ECMWF, HRRR/3‑km ensembles), regional model ensembles, NWS forecast discussions, and latest surface analysis are most informative in the days before Mar 10, since they capture the synoptic pattern and timing of fronts that drive daily highs.
Use historical observations to establish climatological context and variability for March 10, but weigh recent model forecasts and current surface conditions more heavily because single‑day outcomes are primarily driven by the immediate synoptic setup and short‑range model guidance.