| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 41° to 42° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 43° to 44° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 45° to 46° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 47° to 48° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 49° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market tracks the official daily high temperature recorded in Minneapolis, Minnesota, on April 7, 2026. It serves as a financial instrument for hedging against weather-related volatility or speculating on localized climate patterns.
April in Minneapolis is a transitional month marked by significant meteorological instability as the region shifts from winter to spring. Historically, temperatures during this window can fluctuate dramatically, ranging from late-season freezes to unseasonable warmth depending on the trajectory of cold fronts and jet stream positioning. This market captures the inherent uncertainty of spring weather in the Upper Midwest.
Market participants aggregate available meteorological data, climate trends, and historical averages to determine the most likely temperature range for this specific date.
The market relies on official data provided by the National Weather Service (NWS) as recorded at the Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport (MSP) station.
It refers to the maximum temperature recorded during the 24-hour calendar day of April 7, 2026, as finalized by the NWS.
No, the market is based solely on the recorded ambient air temperature, excluding factors like wind chill or humidity.
Traders analyze historical data for early April in Minneapolis, where extreme shifts between record highs and record lows are common, to gauge the distribution of potential outcomes.
In the event of an official station outage, the market rules specify secondary data sources or adjustments based on the primary provider's reporting protocols.