| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 36° to 37° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 38° to 39° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 40° to 41° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 42° to 43° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 44° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market tracks the official daily high temperature recorded in Minneapolis, Minnesota, on April 6, 2026. It serves as a financial instrument for hedging against weather-related volatility or speculating on localized climate patterns.
April in Minneapolis is a transitional month characterized by significant variability as the region moves from late-winter conditions into spring. Historical data shows that daily highs can fluctuate drastically depending on the movement of polar or tropical air masses across the Upper Midwest. Meteorological models struggle to predict precise temperatures this far in advance, making this event a test of climate forecasting trends.
Market prices reflect the aggregate expectation of traders regarding the most likely temperature range, incorporating long-range seasonal forecasts and historical climate averages.
The official high temperature is typically derived from data provided by the National Weather Service (NWS) station at Minneapolis-Saint Paul International Airport.
Minneapolis can experience temperature swings of 30 degrees or more depending on whether the day is dominated by a Canadian cold front or a southern warm air surge.
No, this market specifically tracks the ambient air temperature recorded by standard meteorological instruments, excluding wind chill or heat index factors.
The market relies on the official reported temperature from the designated observation station; extreme weather conditions are captured within the recorded high for that 24-hour period.
No, trading concludes shortly before the specific date to ensure the outcome is determined based on the actual weather event.