| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 39° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 40° to 41° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 42° to 43° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 44° to 45° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 46° to 47° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 48° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market tracks the official daily high temperature in Minneapolis, Minnesota, for April 3, 2026. It serves as a derivative for participants to hedge against or speculate on meteorological variability in the Upper Midwest.
April in Minneapolis is a transition period where the region typically emerges from winter, often featuring highly volatile weather patterns. Historical data shows significant variance in daily highs, heavily influenced by shifting jet stream positions and the potential for late-season cold fronts or unseasonable warm spells. Traders typically analyze long-range climatological models and seasonal trends to gauge the likelihood of these temperature outcomes.
Market prices represent the collective expectation of future weather outcomes, with current valuations reflecting the distribution of possible temperatures as determined by participating traders.
The market relies on official data recorded at the Minneapolis-Saint Paul International Airport (MSP) weather station.
The market resolves based on the official high temperature recorded at the designated reporting station, regardless of the severity or nature of the weather.
No, the market strictly tracks the actual recorded air temperature, not wind chill or heat index measurements.
Market participants often use 30-year historical averages for early April as a baseline for determining the most likely range of temperature outcomes.
Yes, as the date approaches, high-resolution numerical weather prediction models allow traders to refine their outlooks based on more concrete meteorological data.