| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 82° to 83° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $48K | Trade → |
| 79° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $34K | Trade → |
| 84° to 85° | 84% | 80¢ | 83¢ | — | $33K | Trade → |
| 88° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $31K | Trade → |
| 86° to 87° | 17% | 15¢ | 18¢ | — | $29K | Trade → |
| 80° to 81° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $19K | Trade → |
This market asks which of the listed outcome bins will contain Miami's highest observed air temperature on March 9, 2026. It matters to traders and weather-interested stakeholders because a single-day extreme reflects short-term weather dynamics and contributes to seasonal risk assessments.
Miami sits on the boundary between subtropical and tropical regimes, so early March is a transition period when cold fronts, warm spells, and maritime influences can all affect daily highs. Short-term synoptic patterns (fronts, high/low pressure) typically drive day-to-day variation, while long-term warming trends raise the baseline of possible values over years. This contract settles to a single official daily observation, so its outcome is driven by conditions on that specific calendar date rather than seasonal averages.
Market prices/odds aggregate traders' views about which outcome will contain the official maximum temperature on that date; interpret them as a real-time consensus signal informed by available meteorological information rather than a guaranteed prediction.
Settlement is based on the official maximum air temperature reported by the market's designated meteorological data source for the local calendar date; that is the highest reported air temperature for the 24-hour local day as recorded at the specified official observing station.
The market settles to the station specified in the contract terms; if the contract does not explicitly name a station, settlement typically uses the official NWS/NOAA climate observing station designated for Miami. Always check the market's settlement source in the contract rules.
The measurement applies to the local calendar date in Miami (Eastern Time), with the 24-hour observation window defined by the local day; DST status on that date is accounted for by the official data source—confirm exact cutoff language in the market rules.
Contingency procedures in the contract apply: common approaches are to use corrected or provisional data from the official source when available, fallback to a nearby official station or regional climate archive, or follow a settlement committee decision; consult the contract terms for the specific fallback hierarchy.
Settlement follows the contract's tie-breaking rules—typically the single outcome bin that contains the reported value wins; if the rules allow for ambiguous cases, they will specify whether payouts are split, voided, or decided by an adjudicator. Check the market's settlement provisions for precise handling.