| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 82° to 83° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $58K | Trade → |
| 84° to 85° | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $46K | Trade → |
| 86° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $23K | Trade → |
| 80° to 81° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $21K | Trade → |
| 78° to 79° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $10K | Trade → |
| 77° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
This market lets traders express views on the highest air temperature recorded in Miami on March 8, 2026. It matters because it aggregates near-term weather expectations and can reflect evolving forecasts and risk around an extreme-temperature outcome.
Miami in early March is in a transition season with typically mild-to-warm daytime temperatures, but synoptic-scale patterns can produce unusually cool or unusually warm days. Short-term signals from operational weather models, sea surface temperatures, and mesoscale features such as sea breezes determine day-to-day variability; the broader trend toward warmer extremes also alters the baseline for what counts as an unusually high reading. This market records the single highest official observation for that date as defined by the market's settlement rules.
Market odds are a continuously updating, collective estimate of which temperature outcome participants expect for March 8, 2026; they incorporate public forecasts, private views, and new observational data as it arrives. Treat the market as a real-time sentiment and information aggregator, not as an official meteorological forecast — check the market page for the exact settlement definition and data source.
Settlement uses the official observation source and station specified in the market's settlement rules; check the market page for the named station and data provider. If the market page does not list the source, contact the exchange for the exact settlement definition before trading.
The six outcomes partition the range of possible highest temperatures on March 8 into mutually exclusive buckets. The market page lists the exact temperature ranges for each outcome; confirm those ranges before placing trades because payoff depends on which bucket contains the official highest observation.
Forecast updates in the 72 hours leading up to March 8 typically have the strongest impact, with model runs, short-range ensembles, and observational data (satellite, radar, surface stations) refining expectations. Significant shifts can occur from 5–7 days out if a major pattern change is signaled, but the highest leverage is generally 0–3 days before the date.
The market's closing time and whether trading remains open during the measurement period are defined on the market page; because the event page currently shows 'Closes: TBD', check the exchange for the official trade cutoff. Trades executed after the market close will not affect settlement.
Use historical March temperature distributions for Miami as a baseline to understand what counts as a typical versus extreme high for that date. Combine that climatology with current-season signals (ENSO phase, recent trends, anomalous sea surface temperatures) and short-range forecasts to form a view specific to March 8, 2026.