| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 84° to 85° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $39K | Trade → |
| 82° to 83° | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $39K | Trade → |
| 80° to 81° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $29K | Trade → |
| 86° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $14K | Trade → |
| 78° to 79° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $13K | Trade → |
| 77° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
This market asks which of six discrete temperature outcomes will be the highest observed temperature in Miami on March 7, 2026. It matters for traders who want to express views on short-term weather variability and for anyone tracking event-level weather risk.
Miami's weather in early March sits near the transition from winter to spring and can swing between seasonably mild days and warmer intrusions depending on large-scale patterns. Short-lived cold fronts, offshore winds, cloud cover, and tropical moisture are common drivers of day-to-day temperature differences in South Florida. This single-day contract reflects only the outcome on March 7, 2026, and does not by itself indicate long-term climate trends.
Market prices represent the collective assessment of participants about which discrete temperature range will be observed; they update as new forecasts and observations arrive. Interpret prices as a summary of current information, not as a definitive meteorological forecast.
Settlement will follow the official contract description on Kalshi; typically that means the temperature reported by the designated National Weather Service or NCEI station for the Miami area as specified in the market rules. Check the market's settlement clause on Kalshi for the named station.
The market's contract description on Kalshi specifies the date and timezone used for settlement (usually local time for the observation site). Consult that settlement timing to confirm the exact start and end times that define March 7 for this event.
Kalshi's settlement procedures address missing data—often by using the official archive, nearest-renewed observation, or an alternative data source named in the contract. The market's settlement rules on Kalshi explain the fallback methodology.
The market outcome is determined by the recorded observation(s) specified in the contract and does not change due to post‑event forecast adjustments; however, trading behavior and prices will react to new model runs and real-time observations prior to market close.
Use high-resolution short-range models, official National Weather Service forecasts, and recent observations to gauge likelihoods; pay special attention to frontal timing, cloud trends, and model agreement near the event date, and always confirm any instrument/observation specifications in the market contract.