| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 84° to 85° | 44% | 44¢ | 49¢ | — | $27K | Trade → |
| 82° to 83° | 43% | 41¢ | 43¢ | — | $25K | Trade → |
| 86° or above | 10% | 5¢ | 9¢ | — | $21K | Trade → |
| 80° to 81° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $16K | Trade → |
| 77° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
| 78° to 79° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
This market asks which of several predefined outcomes will describe the highest temperature recorded in Miami on March 6, 2026. It matters for short-term weather risk management, energy demand planning, and for traders seeking to express views on near-term weather variability.
March in Miami sits in the late winter/early spring transition, so day-to-day temperatures can swing with the passage of frontal systems, subtropical ridges, or anomalous air masses. Long-term climate trends have nudged baseline temperatures upward, but synoptic weather patterns and local coastal effects remain the primary drivers of single-day extremes.
Market prices (odds) aggregate participants’ expectations based on available forecasts and information; they update as new model runs, observations, and trades arrive. Use prices as a real-time signal of collective market belief, not as a deterministic prediction.
The market will settle to the outcome corresponding to the highest observed temperature recorded in the official observation location(s) and time window specified in the market rules; consult the market’s settlement conditions on KALSHI for the exact station and observation protocol.
This market contains six mutually exclusive outcomes, each corresponding to a specific temperature bracket defined on the market page; review the market description to see the exact brackets and labels.
The listed close time is currently TBD; check the market page for updates. Settlement typically occurs after the official daily observations are published and any applicable verification period has passed, per KALSHI’s rules.
Operational global and regional models (e.g., the major forecast models and their ensembles), near-term high-resolution mesoscale models for coastal effects, and real-time observations from the designated Miami weather station(s) are the most relevant sources to monitor.
If official observations are missing or there is an error, KALSHI will follow its published resolution policy for that market; this can include using alternate official data sources or voiding/adjusting the market per the platform’s rules—check the market terms for details.