| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 82° to 83° | 64% | 64¢ | 65¢ | — | $8K | Trade → |
| 84° to 85° | 16% | 16¢ | 17¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| 80° to 81° | 14% | 14¢ | 15¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| 78° to 79° | 3% | 3¢ | 4¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| 77° or below | 1% | 1¢ | 2¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| 86° or above | 3% | 3¢ | 4¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
This market asks which of six specified temperature outcomes will represent the highest air temperature recorded in Miami on March 5, 2026. It matters for traders who want to express views on short-term weather variability and for hedging weather-related exposures in the Miami area.
Miami has a warm, maritime climate with relatively small seasonal temperature swings; early March is a transition period from winter to spring when synoptic systems, sea-breeze interactions, and humidity can all influence daily maxima. Climate change has raised baseline temperatures and the frequency of unseasonably warm days, but day-to-day outcomes still depend heavily on transient weather systems and local effects.
Market prices aggregate participant expectations about which temperature range will be observed; they move as new weather model outputs, observations, and forecasts arrive. Use the market price as a real-time summary of consensus expectations rather than as a guaranteed forecast.
Settlement will rely on an official maximum air temperature measurement as defined in the contract rules; consult the market's event page or rulebook to see the exact measurement window (e.g., local calendar day) and whether the maximum is taken from a one-minute, five-minute, or hourly observation.
The contract specifies the authoritative data source and station used for settlement—typically an NWS/NOAA-observed station serving Miami; check the event details on the market page for the definitive source and station identifier.
The close time is listed on the market page (this event currently shows 'TBD'); settlement occurs after the official data for March 5 has been published by the designated source and any prescribed verification window has passed, per the contract rules.
Short-range model runs, high-resolution ensembles, and the observed evolution of cloud cover, frontal timing, and winds in the 48–72 hours before the event typically have the largest impact; monitor human forecasts from local NWS offices and real-time observations (radar, surface stations) for late adjustments.
Historical climatology and past March 5 records provide context on typical variability and the range of plausible maxima; use climatology to set baseline expectations and combine it with current-season trends, model forecasts, and synoptic setup to form a trading view—always confirm that historical comparisons align with the contract's exact measurement definition.