| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 83° to 84° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $42K | Trade → |
| 81° to 82° | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $32K | Trade → |
| 79° to 80° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $30K | Trade → |
| 85° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $20K | Trade → |
| 77° to 78° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $12K | Trade → |
| 76° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $9K | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature range will be the highest observed in Miami on March 4, 2026; it matters because it aggregates trader expectations about weather conditions that day, which can reflect forecasts and near‑term atmospheric changes.
Miami in early March sits in a transition season where temperatures can be influenced by warm subtropical air, intermittent cool frontal passages, and local sea‑breeze effects. Historical March temperatures in Miami are typically mild to warm, but single‑day maxima can shift substantially with synoptic patterns, cloud cover, and wind direction.
Market prices on this event summarize collective beliefs about which of the six mutually exclusive temperature bins will contain the day’s maximum; treat those prices as a real‑time indicator of expectations that can change as new forecast data and observations arrive.
It refers to the maximum air temperature recorded during the local calendar day (00:00–23:59 local time) at the official NWS/NOAA station that serves Miami (typically the Miami international area observing site used by federal meteorological services); the market will use that designated official observation for resolution.
The six outcomes partition the range of plausible highest temperatures into six exclusive bins; the event page lists the exact numerical cutoffs for each bin, and only the bin containing the official daily maximum will resolve as the winner.
The close time is listed as TBD on the market; typically markets close prior to the observation day or shortly before the official measurement window, and final resolution occurs after the official daily maximum is posted by the designated observing agency (usually within a day or two after the date).
Short‑range forecast models and products are most informative: deterministic and ensemble runs of models like GFS/ECMWF, high‑resolution models (e.g., HRRR) for convection and sea‑breeze timing, official NWS forecasts for Miami, and recent surface observations from nearby stations and buoys to track real‑time trends.
No—resolution relies on the official designated observing station specified by the market; informal or nearby personal station reports can inform traders’ expectations but do not change the official record used for settlement.