| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 80° to 81° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $54K | Trade → |
| 82° to 83° | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $54K | Trade → |
| 84° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $51K | Trade → |
| 78° to 79° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $46K | Trade → |
| 76° to 77° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $23K | Trade → |
| 75° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $17K | Trade → |
This market asks which of six pre-set outcome buckets will contain Miami’s highest observed temperature on March 3, 2026. It matters because daily maximum temperatures reflect short-term weather drivers and can be traded as a way to hedge or speculate on near-term climate variability.
Miami’s day-to-day highs are shaped by the interaction of tropical moisture, frontal intrusions from the continental U.S., and local sea-breeze effects; early March is a transition month when both warm and cool patterns are possible. Historical late-winter records and recent seasonal trends provide context, but each day’s maximum is primarily driven by synoptic-scale weather systems and cloud/precipitation on that specific date.
Market prices represent the collective expectation of which temperature bucket will be the day’s maximum; prices move as traders incorporate new model forecasts, observations, and short-term weather updates. Treat the odds as a real-time summary of available information rather than a fixed forecast.
Settlement will follow the official reporting station and observational source specified in the contract details; typically that is the NOAA/NWS station designated by the exchange — check the contract page for the exact station identifier and source.
The six outcomes correspond to non-overlapping temperature ranges pre-defined by the market creator; the exact numeric cutoffs and labels are listed on the market’s outcomes table on the event page.
The market close time is listed on the event page as 'TBD'; final settlement normally occurs after the official daily maximum for March 3 is published by the reporting authority, and the exchange will announce the settlement schedule once the contract’s close time is set.
Contracts use the reporting period and conventions specified in the contract rules (for example, the local calendar day and the official observation timestamps); any tie-breakers or observational nuances are governed by the settlement procedure described in the contract documentation.
Yes — updates from weather models, buoy/airport observations, or changes in forecast confidence can move market prices because traders will re-evaluate which temperature bucket looks most likely given new information.