| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 74° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 75° to 76° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 77° to 78° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 79° to 80° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 81° to 82° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 83° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks traders to predict the numerical highest air temperature recorded in Miami on March 29, 2026. It matters for weather-sensitive operations, energy demand planning, and as a measure of short-term climate variability in a heavily populated coastal city.
Miami's late-March temperatures are influenced by a mix of subtropical warmth and passing frontal systems; some years show unseasonable warmth while others are moderated by onshore flow and cloudiness. Historical context—daily extremes for a given date reflect both seasonal climatology and short-term weather patterns such as cold fronts, persistent ridging, or tropical influences.
Prediction market prices aggregate trader expectations about the final reported value listed in the contract; they are a real-time signal of collective beliefs but not a guaranteed outcome. Always check the market's contract text to understand exactly which station, time window, and observation method will be used to settle the event.
The market is settled to the official temperature observation specified in the contract text—typically the maximum reported by the designated official station during the local calendar day. Consult the market's contract for the exact station, time window, units, and rounding rules used for settlement.
The exact station and data source are specified in the event's contract; many contracts reference an official NOAA/NWS observing site. Check the market details to confirm which station and dataset will be used for settlement.
The market's close time is listed on the event page as TBD; trading will be allowed up until the stated close. Monitor the market page for updates about the official close time and any last-minute changes.
Use synoptic model guidance (GFS, ECMWF, local ensemble forecasts) for 1–10 day outlooks and monitor trends in cloud cover, frontal timing, and wind forecasts; remember that local effects like sea breeze timing and cloud cover can materially change daytime maxima.
Historical values provide context on the typical range and extremes for this date and can inform expectations about what is plausible, but year-to-year variability driven by transient weather systems means past values are only one input among current forecasts and synoptic conditions.