| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 78° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 79° to 80° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 81° to 82° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 83° to 84° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 85° to 86° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 87° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks traders to predict the highest air temperature recorded in Miami on March 28, 2026. Accurate forecasting matters for public safety, energy demand planning, and local event management.
Late March in Miami is a transitional period with warm days and occasional cold-frontal intrusions; day-to-day variability can be driven by synoptic-scale systems, cloud cover, and sea-breeze dynamics. This KALSHI contract is listed with six discrete outcomes, the stated close time is TBD, and initial volume shows no executed trades.
Market prices reflect the collective expectation of which temperature range will be recorded and update as new meteorological information arrives. Changes in price signal shifts in probable outcomes based on forecast updates, observations, and interpretation of settlement rules.
The contract’s settlement rules on KALSHI specify the exact station or dataset to be used (for example, an NWS observation site or an NCEI daily summary); consult the contract text to identify the official source.
Settlement typically follows a defined local-time window (commonly 00:00–23:59 local) as stated in the contract; check the contract for the precise timezone and timestamp rules.
KALSHI’s settlement provisions describe tie-breaking, invalid-observation handling, and fallback procedures—examples include using the highest verified value, referencing an alternative official dataset, or following a prescribed adjudication process.
The contract specifies whether preliminary real-time observations or post-processed quality-controlled daily summaries will be used; review the settlement criteria to know which version applies.
Major factors include the arrival and timing of frontal systems, short-range model updates about cloud cover and precipitation, near-term ensemble spreads for temperature, and any shifts in synoptic winds that alter sea-breeze behavior—these typically have the largest influence in the 48–72 hours before the target date.