| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 76° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 77° to 78° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 79° to 80° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 81° to 82° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 83° to 84° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 85° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which of six outcomes will correspond to Miami's highest observed temperature on March 26, 2026, and why that measurement matters for local weather-sensitive decisions. Markets like this aggregate forecast information and can highlight changing expectations as observations and model guidance update.
Miami's late‑March climate sits in a transitional spring period when temperatures can be influenced by either lingering cool continental air or early-season warm, maritime conditions. Day‑to‑day variability is driven by synoptic features (cold fronts, highs), local sea‑breeze interactions, cloud cover, and broader patterns such as ENSO. KALSHI's event will resolve against an official observing source specified on the event page, so consult the event rules for the designated station and resolution procedure.
Market odds reflect the collective market view of which temperature outcome is most likely given current forecasts and observations; they update as new meteorological information arrives. Use them as a real‑time signal of consensus expectations, not as fixed forecasts.
The market close time is listed on the KALSHI event page (currently TBD); the outcome will be resolved after the official temperature observation for Mar 26, 2026 is published by the designated source per the event rules. Check the event page for precise close and resolution windows.
The event rules on KALSHI specify the official reporting station or data source used for resolution (platforms commonly designate the NWS/NOAA official observing station serving Miami). Refer to the event's rule text to confirm the exact station and dataset that will be used.
Outcome definitions (for example, temperature ranges or bins) are shown on the event page; resolution methods and any tie‑breaking procedures are specified in the event rules. If multiple readings tie, the event rules explain the tie‑break method (such as first occurrence at the official station or another predefined protocol), so review those rules before trading.
New information that changes expected daytime heating will move the market: model updates showing a front's arrival time, sudden shifts in cloud‑cover forecasts, changes in surface wind direction (onshore vs offshore), and updated satellite/radar observations that alter expected insolation. Rapidly evolving mesoscale features (sea‑breeze timing, convective clouds) can also shift expectations on the day itself.
The platform's event rules describe fallback procedures for missing or compromised data, which commonly include using an alternate official station, a quality‑controlled aggregate dataset, or a defined reanalysis product. Consult the event's resolution rules to see the exact contingency process that will apply if the primary source is unavailable.