| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 78° to 79° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 86° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 77° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 82° to 83° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 84° to 85° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 80° to 81° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This prediction market asks which temperature range will be recorded as the highest air temperature in Miami on March 24, 2026. It matters because markets aggregate weather expectations that reflect forecasts, climate context, and local observational practices.
Late March is a transitional period in South Florida when warm Gulf and Atlantic air masses can produce a wide range of high temperatures; long-term observations show variability from cool spring days to early-season heat. Short-term weather patterns — fronts, ridges, or onshore flow — typically determine daily extremes, while station siting and the chosen official observation site determine the recorded value used for settlement.
Market odds summarize traders' collective expectations about which outcome will be realized and incorporate new forecast information as it arrives; interpret them as a real-time consensus signal subject to change with updated data and liquidity.
The market will settle based on the specific official reporting station and measurement definition listed in the event’s rules; consult the event page for the designated station (for example, an NWS official station or airport) and the exact observation metric used.
Settlement timing and the precise daily observation window (local calendar day, UTC conversion, or official observation period) are defined in the event rules—check the event’s settlement clause for the closing and data cutoff times.
The event page identifies primary and, if applicable, secondary data sources and describes dispute procedures; common practice is to rely on the primary official dataset, with specified fallback sources or an adjudication process if data are missing or disputed.
Price movements reflect updates in forecast guidance (deterministic runs and ensembles), observations from preceding days, and changing confidence levels; larger intraday swings near the target date are normal as short-range models and observations refine the expected high temperature.
Yes—instrument malfunctions, data processing errors, or quality-control adjustments can affect the recorded value; the market’s settlement rules specify how such cases are handled, including use of alternate stations or official revisions.