| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 83° to 84° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 78° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 79° to 80° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 81° to 82° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 87° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 85° to 86° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature band will contain the highest official temperature recorded in Miami on March 23, 2026. It matters because it aggregates expectations about the day's meteorological conditions and can inform short-term weather-sensitive decisions.
Late March in Miami is a transitional period from winter to spring, so climatology gives a baseline but day-to-day conditions can vary widely with the passage of fronts, tropical influences, or persistent high pressure. Local effects such as sea-breeze timing, cloud cover, and urban microclimates frequently modulate daily highs. This market captures traders' collective judgement about those interacting influences for this specific date.
Market prices reflect the consensus view of which outcome will be realized under the event's settlement rules and update as new forecasts and observations arrive. Use prices as an indication of collective expectation, not as a deterministic prediction.
Settlement uses the specific local-time window defined in the event rules—usually the 00:00:00 to 23:59:59 local date—but you must check the event page for the precise time zone and any exceptions.
The event's settlement source is specified in the market's rules; it will name the official observing station or dataset (for example, an NWS/NOAA station) that will be used to determine the reported highest temperature.
The six outcomes correspond to mutually exclusive temperature ranges listed on the event page; the numeric boundaries and whether endpoints are inclusive are shown in the outcomes section—review them before trading.
The market's settlement rules specify how boundary cases are treated (for example which interval is inclusive) and any tie-break procedures; consult the event's settlement clause for the definitive rule.
Settlement typically occurs after the official data provider publishes the daily summary for March 23; timing can range from hours to a day depending on processing and verification—see the event page for the expected settlement timeline and any stated delays.