| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 77° to 78° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 81° to 82° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 79° to 80° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 76° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 83° to 84° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 85° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest air temperature recorded in Miami on March 22, 2026 will be. It matters to people and businesses that depend on short-term weather outcomes, and it provides a way to aggregate forecasts and expectations about that day's temperature.
Late March in Miami sits between winter and summer regimes, so temperatures can swing depending on frontal passages, onshore flow, or lingering warm air masses. Seasonal patterns (including larger-scale influences such as ENSO state) and recent synoptic trends shape expectations, while long-term climate warming shifts the baseline climate upward over decades.
Market prices reflect the aggregated expectations of traders and forecasters about the official observed maximum temperature for that date; they update as new meteorological information appears. Use market information alongside official forecasts and real-time observations to inform decisions.
The market will settle to the official daily maximum temperature as defined in its resolution rules; those rules specify the exact observing station or dataset (often an NWS/NOAA station for Miami). Check the market's resolution terms to confirm the precise source.
The close time is listed as TBD on the event page; consult the market for the announced close. Settlement typically occurs after the official daily climate summary for Mar 22 is available and per the market's stated timeline and procedures.
The event uses the official definition in the market's resolution rules—generally the observed daily maximum air temperature measured by the designated instrument at standard exposure and standard height, using the official reporting interval.
The market's resolution rules spell out fallback procedures, which can include using an alternate official station, a vetted backup dataset, or guidance from the responsible meteorological agency; consult those rules for the exact contingency plan.
Watch surface analyses and short-range model runs for frontal timing, upper-level pattern changes, ensemble spread for uncertainty, hourly observations from local stations, cloud and precipitation forecasts, and sea-breeze evolution—these factors most directly affect the day’s peak temperature.