| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 78° to 79° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 71° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 72° to 73° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 80° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 76° to 77° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 74° to 75° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest air temperature observed in Miami on March 20, 2026 will be, offering a way to trade on a specific daily weather outcome. It matters for short-term weather risk management, event planning, and for tracking seasonal and climatic variability.
Late March is a transitional period in South Florida when warm subtropical air and intermittent cool fronts can both influence daily extremes; interannual variability and longer-term warming trends also affect typical values. Markets like this usually settle to an official observational dataset (for example, an NWS-designated station) and reflect meteorological forecasts, surface observations, and recent climatology.
Market prices reflect collective expectations about what the official reported daily maximum will be on that date; they should be read as the market's assessment of relative likelihood among the listed outcomes rather than precise predictions. Always consult the contract's settlement terms to understand exactly how the reported temperature will be defined and measured.
Settlement will use the official highest air temperature reported for the specified Miami reporting station during the calendar day (local time) as defined in the market's contract—check the market's settlement documentation for the designated station and observational source.
The market's close and settlement schedule are set by the exchange; because the posted 'Closes' field is TBD, consult the contract page for the exact trade cutoff and the date/time when the official observation will be used to settle outcomes.
Each of the six listed outcomes corresponds to a predefined temperature bin or category specified in the contract; read the contract description or outcome list to see the exact temperature ranges and how a reported maximum maps to one outcome.
Exchanges commonly rely on official National Weather Service (NWS) observations from a designated ASOS/AWOS or NWS climate station for Miami; the contract will name the exact station and data feed used for settlement.
Watch synoptic forecasts for frontal passages or building ridges, guidance from major numerical weather prediction models, trends in surface and sea-surface temperatures, and near-term station observations (e.g., prefrontal winds, humidity and cloud cover) that will determine daytime heating and peak temperature timing.