| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 79° to 80° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $82K | Trade → |
| 77° to 78° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $62K | Trade → |
| 81° to 82° | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $51K | Trade → |
| 83° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $44K | Trade → |
| 75° to 76° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $14K | Trade → |
| 74° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
This market trades on the highest air temperature recorded in Miami on March 2, 2026. It matters because daily temperature extremes reflect short‑term weather patterns and can influence energy demand, public health planning, and local economic activity.
Miami's early‑March temperatures are driven by a mix of continental air masses, Gulf/Atlantic moisture, and coastal effects such as sea breezes; seasonal climate drivers (e.g., El Niño/La Niña state) and longer‑term warming trends provide broader context. Historical variability on a given calendar date can be substantial due to frontal passages or anomalous warm spells, so single‑day outcomes often hinge on synoptic timing.
Market prices represent the collective trading view of what outcome will occur and update in real time as new weather observations and forecasts arrive. Use prices as a dynamic indicator of market consensus, not a fixed forecast—check the event page for official settlement rules and sources before trading.
Settlement will occur after the official highest daily air temperature for March 2, 2026 is published by the market's designated source; consult the KALSHI event page for the exact settlement time, any verification window, and tie‑break procedures.
The event is settled to the official source named on the KALSHI event page; many weather markets use the National Weather Service/NOAA observation for the Miami metro area, but you must confirm the exact station or network listed in the event rules before assuming which thermometer will be used.
Each of the six outcomes corresponds to a specific temperature bin or exact value range for the highest observed temperature on March 2, 2026 as defined on the event page—review the outcome labels on KALSHI to see the precise ranges and endpoints used for settlement.
By definition the highest temperature is the maximum observed during the local calendar day for March 2, 2026 at the designated station; whether overnight or early‑morning values matter depends on when the peak occurs, and the event’s settlement rules specify the time zone and date boundaries used.
A frontal passage can sharply lower daytime maxima if it brings cooler air before peak heating, while warm advection ahead of a front or persistent high pressure can elevate temperatures; rapid forecast model updates and new observations close to the date often drive the largest market moves.