| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 77° to 78° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 79° to 80° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 73° to 74° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 81° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 72° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 75° to 76° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature range will contain the highest air temperature recorded in Miami on March 19, 2026. It matters for people and businesses sensitive to short-term weather outcomes and for traders expressing forecasts about that specific day.
Late winter / early spring in Miami is a transitional season: temperatures can be influenced by Atlantic air masses, passing cold fronts, or persistent subtropical warmth. Interannual factors such as ENSO and seasonal sea-surface temperatures shift the background risk, while day-to-day weather patterns determine the realized maximum.
Market prices reflect the collective expectations of traders about which predefined temperature band will contain the day’s maximum at the official observing site; treat them as a real-time consensus signal rather than a definitive forecast.
Resolution will use the official observational record specified by the contract—typically the National Weather Service/NOAA station designated for Miami; the contract defines which station and data feed will be authoritative.
The market offers six mutually exclusive temperature bands defined on the event page; each outcome corresponds to a predetermined temperature range—see the contract page for the exact thresholds and inclusivity rules.
The close time is listed on the contract page (currently TBD); typically trading ends before the measurement day begins and the official result is posted after the observing station publishes the daily maximum or after any required verification/corrections.
The contract specifies whether range endpoints are inclusive or exclusive; the official reported maximum value from the designated station is used to determine which outcome covers that value according to those rules.
Exchange resolution procedures govern missing or corrected data: they may wait for corrected official values, use a secondary official source, or follow the contingency rules in the contract—consult the market’s resolution policy for details.