| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 73° to 74° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 68° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 69° to 70° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 71° to 72° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 77° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 75° to 76° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market resolves to the highest official air temperature recorded in Miami on March 18, 2026; it lets participants express views or hedge exposures to short-term temperature outcomes in a climatically sensitive city.
Miami has a tropical-influenced climate with relatively warm, maritime-moderated conditions and high interannual variability during transitional months like March. Seasonal synoptic changes, sea-breeze effects, and occasional frontal intrusions all contribute to large day-to-day swings, so outcomes on a single date can depart meaningfully from long-term averages.
Market prices aggregate traders' information about forecasts, observations, and climatology; they should be read as a reflection of the market consensus about which temperature range is most likely given available data and participants' risk preferences. For settlement details, always consult the contract's published rules and data source definitions.
The contract specifies the designated reporting station and source used for settlement (typically an official NOAA/NWS station or NCEI quality-controlled dataset). Check the event's contract page for the exact station identifier and data provider before trading.
Settlement normally uses the local calendar day for Miami, running from 00:00 to 23:59 local time; note that March 18, 2026 falls during U.S. daylight saving time (Eastern Daylight Time). Confirm the precise time convention in the contract's rules.
The contract will state whether temperatures are reported in Fahrenheit or Celsius and the rounding or precision used for settlement; consult those specifications to understand exactly how an observation maps to outcomes.
The event's settlement procedures define fallback rules—common approaches include using an alternate nearby official station or a quality-controlled reanalysis/archival dataset. Review the contract's missing-data and tie-resolution clauses for the authoritative process.
Use long-term daily climatologies and historical daily-maximum archives from NOAA/NCEI or the local NWS climate office to compare the quoted maximum to past March 18 values and seasonal normals; also examine recent years' trends to see how recent warmth or variability may affect expectations.