| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 81° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 75° to 76° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 79° to 80° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 72° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 73° to 74° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 77° to 78° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks traders to forecast the highest air temperature recorded in the Miami area on March 17, 2026; settlement will be based on an official temperature observation. Outcomes matter for participants interested in weather-sensitive risk (energy, public health, travel) and for testing forecast information aggregation.
Miami in mid-March is in the seasonal transition from winter to spring, so daily maximums can swing depending on synoptic weather systems, coastal effects, and larger-scale climate drivers. Local factors such as sea breezes, urban heat island effects, and recent trends in sea surface temperatures can all influence how warm the day becomes.
Market prices represent the collective expectation about which temperature bracket will be realized on that date, synthesizing available forecasts and information; use prices as a snapshot of market consensus, not as guarantees.
Settlement will use the official highest air temperature reported by the market's designated data source or official meteorological station for the Miami area; consult the event's settlement rules on the platform to see the named provider and measurement units.
The measurement window is the local calendar day for Miami (Eastern Time), typically 00:00 to 23:59 local time on March 17, 2026, unless the market's specific settlement rules state otherwise—check the event page for confirmation.
Each outcome corresponds to a predefined temperature bracket listed on the event page; the market's rules describe how exact matches, rounding, and any ties are resolved, so review those settlement details before trading.
The event's settlement policy will specify fallback procedures or alternative data providers (for example, an alternate official station or authoritative regional dataset); traders should read those fallback provisions on the event page.
Use multi-year climatology for mid-March, recent seasonal forecasts, and records of prior March 17 observations to gauge typical versus unusual outcomes; combine that context with short-range forecast model trends in the days before the event to refine your view.