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Climate and Weather OPEN

Highest temperature in Miami on Mar 16, 2026?

📊 $0 traded 🏦 Source: Kalshi
Total Volume
$0
Open Interest
0
Active Markets
6
Markets
6

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All Outcomes (6)
Outcome Probability Yes Bid Yes Ask 24h Change Volume
79° or below 0%
$0 Trade →
88° or above 0%
$0 Trade →
80° to 81° 0%
$0 Trade →
82° to 83° 0%
$0 Trade →
84° to 85° 0%
$0 Trade →
86° to 87° 0%
$0 Trade →

About This Market

This market asks what the highest air temperature in Miami will be on March 16, 2026. It matters to traders and users who follow short-term weather risk for energy, travel, outdoor events, and public safety.

Miami in mid-March typically sits in a transitional season where daily highs can be moderated by marine influence but are also sensitive to synoptic-scale patterns that bring warm or cool air. Long-term warming trends raise the baseline for extremes, while day-to-day variability (frontal passages, cloud cover, sea-breeze development) determines the realized high on any single date. The market presents six mutually exclusive outcome bins (see the market page for the exact boundaries).

Market odds reflect the collective market view of which temperature range will contain Miami’s official daily maximum on March 16, 2026, updating as meteorological forecasts and new information arrive. Interpret prices as relative assessments of likely outcomes, not fixed forecasts or guarantees.

Key Factors

Frequently Asked Questions

When will trading close for this market and when will the outcome be settled?

The market close is listed as TBD; settlement timing follows the contract’s rules and typically occurs after the official daily maximum is published for the specified station. Check the market page for the final close time and the platform’s settlement policy.

Which official observation or station determines the ‘highest temperature in Miami’ for March 16, 2026?

The contract specifies the official observation source (commonly the National Weather Service/NOAA station serving Miami); the exact station and data source are listed in the market’s settlement terms on the platform.

How are the six outcomes defined and how will the reported temperature map to one of them?

The six outcomes are contiguous, non-overlapping temperature ranges that together cover all possible reported maximums; the outcome whose range contains the official reported maximum for March 16, 2026 will be declared the winner.

What meteorological conditions on March 16, 2026 would make the warmest outcome more likely?

A day dominated by subsidence or a high-pressure ridge, clear skies, light onshore flow or offshore return flow, absence of frontal passage, and relatively warm near-shore sea surface temperatures would favor a higher daytime maximum.

If the designated station has missing data or an instrument failure on March 16, 2026, how will settlement be handled?

Settlement follows the platform’s contingency rules stated in the contract: this may include using an alternate specified station, applying a predetermined backup data source or reanalysis, or invoking arbitration; consult the market’s settlement terms for the exact hierarchy.

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