| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 79° to 80° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 85° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 77° to 78° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 81° to 82° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 83° to 84° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 76° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature range will be the highest recorded in Miami on March 15, 2026. It matters for people and organizations managing weather-sensitive operations, energy loads, and event planning, and for tracking short-term climate variability.
Mid-March in Miami is a transition period from cooler winter nights to warming spring days; daily maxima can be influenced by frontal passages, cloud cover, and Gulf/Atlantic sea surface temperatures. Longer-term warming trends and year-to-year climate patterns (e.g., El Niño/La Niña) shift the baseline but day-to-day weather remains driven by synoptic-scale systems and local sea-breeze effects.
Market odds reflect the collective expectation of which temperature outcome will occur and change as forecast models, observations, and new information arrive. Use the odds as a relative measure of market consensus rather than an immutable prediction.
The contract will specify a settling data source; many weather contracts use the National Weather Service/NOAA official station for Miami (for example the Miami International Airport station) or another designated official provider. Always check the market’s settlement rules to confirm the exact station and dataset.
‘Highest temperature’ refers to the highest observed dry‑bulb (air) temperature recorded by the designated official station during the applicable local day. It does not refer to heat index, humidex, or other derived measures unless the contract explicitly states otherwise.
Most weather contracts use the local calendar day of the designated station (00:00 to 23:59 local time), but the precise settlement window is defined in the market’s rules; confirm the time convention on the event page.
Each of the six outcomes represents a mutually exclusive temperature bin or exact value range laid out on the market page; review that outcome list on the event page to see the exact cutoff temperatures and which range your position corresponds to.
The event lists the close time as TBD, so check the market page for updates; settlement will occur after the designated official daily summary from the settling data provider is published, typically shortly after the day’s observations are finalized per the contract rules.