| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 81° to 82° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 78° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 87° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 79° to 80° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 83° to 84° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 85° to 86° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature range will include the highest air temperature observed in Miami on March 14, 2026. Outcomes provide a way for traders to express expectations about that single-day high, which is relevant to local weather risk, energy demand, and short-term planning.
Mid-March in Miami sits between winter and spring climatology, so highs can be influenced by cold frontal passages, early-season warm spells, or persistent maritime influence. Broader factors such as sea-surface temperatures, large-scale atmospheric patterns, and any nearby tropical activity can shift the expected range for that date.
Market odds (prices) reflect the collective expectation for which predefined temperature bucket will contain the observed daily maximum; movements indicate new information or changing forecasts. Consult the contract page for the exact definitions of each discrete outcome.
The contract uses the official highest 1‑minute/5‑minute (as specified by the market rules) air temperature recorded during the local calendar day at the designated official observing station; consult the contract text for the precise measurement convention and averaging interval.
The market will use the official source named in the contract (commonly an NWS/NOAA station such as the primary Miami airport station); the contract page lists the specific station and data provider that will be treated as authoritative.
The observation window covers the local calendar day defined in the contract (typically midnight to midnight local time for Miami); settlement timing follows the publication and verification procedures in the contract, and the market will use the authoritative post-event record when determining the winning outcome.
Each outcome corresponds to a specific, non-overlapping temperature range listed on the contract page; the contract also specifies boundary-handling rules (which adjacent range contains the boundary value), so check the outcome definitions for the exact mapping.
The market follows the designated official data source and the contract's dispute/resolution provisions: if the authoritative source revises its published value, the market uses that revised official record per the contract terms; anomalies are handled according to the market's stated adjudication rules.