| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 79° to 80° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 78° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 87° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 81° to 82° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 83° to 84° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 85° to 86° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks participants to predict the highest air temperature recorded in Miami on March 13, 2026. It matters to traders, weather forecasters, and anyone using short‑term climate information for planning or risk management.
Miami in mid‑March sits in a seasonal transition from late winter to early spring; synoptic systems (cold fronts, subtropical ridges) and oceanic influences can push highs above or below typical values for the date. Large‑scale drivers such as the state of ENSO, Gulf/Atlantic sea surface temperatures, and the timing of any frontal passage often set the broad temperature regime, while local sea‑breeze circulations and urban microclimates modulate the day‑to‑day peak.
Market odds aggregate the information and expectations of traders and forecasters and will move as new model runs and observations arrive. Treat market prices as a real‑time synthesis of available information rather than as a fixed prediction; they update as conditions evolve.
The outcome is based on the highest official air temperature recorded during the local calendar day for March 13, 2026, using Miami local time (Eastern Time); confirm the market's rule page for any alternate time definitions.
Settlement will use the official observing source named in the market's contract—typically the National Weather Service or another designated meteorological station for Miami; check the market's settlement/source clause for the exact station.
The market will follow its published settlement procedure: it uses the officially specified station/source and timestamped, quality‑controlled observations from that source to determine the highest recorded temperature for the date.
Cloud cover and precipitation reduce daytime solar heating and tend to lower peak temperatures; onshore winds and cool marine air moderate highs, while dry, subsident conditions and southerly flow favor warmer peaks. The timing of these factors relative to the diurnal cycle is critical.
The market close time is listed as TBD; typically you should monitor short‑range model runs (0–72 hour guidance), local NWS forecasts, and observation trends in the days and hours leading into March 13, as markets often react most strongly to updates in the 48–0 hour window before the event.