| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 81° to 82° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 83° to 84° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 87° to 88° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 80° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 85° to 86° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 89° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature range will be the highest recorded in Miami on March 12, 2026; it matters for traders hedging weather risk and for stakeholders in energy, travel, and public health who monitor short-term temperature extremes.
Miami's early-March climate is influenced by the transition from winter to spring, with day-to-day outcomes driven mainly by frontal passages, subtropical ridging, and Gulf/Atlantic sea surface temperatures. Long-term warming trends have shifted the baseline and increased the frequency of warm anomalies, but individual-day outcomes remain highly dependent on synoptic-scale weather patterns and local effects.
Market prices aggregate participating traders' expectations for the highest reported temperature among the contract's specified outcomes; interpret movements as shifts in collective expectation as new model runs and observations arrive, not as guarantees of a specific outcome.
The market close time is listed on the contract page as TBD; the official highest temperature will be the value and station specified in the market's settlement rules—check the event contract for the exact observation source and measurement protocol.
Each outcome corresponds to a specific temperature range defined in the contract; traders should review the exact numeric boundaries and whether endpoints are inclusive on the market page before trading.
Historical climatology gives a baseline for what’s typical on March 12 and helps identify whether a forecasted value is anomalous; combine climatology with current-season trends and model forecasts to assess how unusual a projected high would be.
Monitor deterministic models (e.g., GFS, ECMWF), high‑resolution convection-allowing models, surface observations from the designated official station, satellite imagery for cloud cover, and short‑range ensemble guidance for uncertainty.
Prices often move gradually as multi‑day model trends form and then more sharply within the 48–72 hour window as high-resolution runs and surface observations resolve frontal timing, cloud cover, or other features that materially change the expected daily maximum.