| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 83° to 84° | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $53K | Trade → |
| 85° to 86° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $51K | Trade → |
| 78° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $27K | Trade → |
| 81° to 82° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $25K | Trade → |
| 79° to 80° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $23K | Trade → |
| 87° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $21K | Trade → |
This market asks which discrete temperature category will contain Miami’s highest observed temperature on March 11, 2026; it matters because temperature extremes affect energy demand, public health, and local operations. Market prices aggregate traders’ expectations and incorporate evolving weather forecasts and observations.
Miami’s March climate sits in a spring transition: days can be mild or occasionally unseasonably warm depending on synoptic-scale patterns. This market has six mutually exclusive outcomes (see the market page for exact thresholds) and will resolve to the single outcome matching the official reported temperature for the specified reporting location.
Odds on the market reflect the collective view of traders and update as new meteorological data arrive; they are a real‑time signal, not a guaranteed forecast — always cross-check with official forecast products and the market’s settlement rules.
The market resolves to the official data source and reporting station specified in the contract terms on the market page; check the KALSHI market description or settlement rules for the exact station and primary data provider used for resolution.
The six discrete outcome ranges (temperature bins) are listed on the market page; they are mutually exclusive and exhaustive for possible reported maxima — consult the market page to see the numeric thresholds and inclusive/exclusive endpoints.
The market’s close time is marked as TBD on the listing; settlement typically occurs after the event day once the designated reporting source publishes the official temperature record — the market page and exchange notifications will indicate final close and settlement timing.
The contract follows the settlement source’s definition; in practice this is usually the official daily maximum temperature as reported by the specified station or dataset — consult the contract’s settlement rules for the precise measurement window and methodology.
Monitor synoptic model guidance (centroid position of highs/lows), frontal timing, ensemble spreads from major models, NWS Miami forecast discussions, local observations and METAR reports, and any tropical or subtropical activity that could alter temperatures near the date.