| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 84° to 85° | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $42K | Trade → |
| 82° to 83° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $29K | Trade → |
| 86° to 87° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $29K | Trade → |
| 80° to 81° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $23K | Trade → |
| 79° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $18K | Trade → |
| 88° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $14K | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature range will be the highest observed in Miami on March 10, 2026 — a near-term weather outcome that matters for local planning, energy demand, and weather-sensitive trades. Markets like this aggregate available forecasts and observations into a single, tradable signal.
Miami has a subtropical climate and March is a transitional month when either lingering cool fronts or unseasonably warm air masses can dominate, so day-to-day variability is common. This Kalshi market offers six mutually exclusive outcomes covering possible high-temperature ranges and has attracted active liquidity (Total Volume Traded: $38,281); outcomes and prices will shift as new forecasts and observations arrive.
Market odds summarize the crowd’s best estimate of which temperature range is most likely to be the day’s peak; they update continuously as model runs, observations, and news arrive. Treat market prices as timely signals that complement but do not replace official meteorological data or forecasts.
The market is resolved using the official daily maximum temperature recorded for the Miami area at the designated National Weather Service/NOAA climate station (typically the official Miami station) for local calendar day March 10, 2026 (00:00–23:59 local time).
The six outcomes are predefined, mutually exclusive temperature ranges that together cover the plausible span of highest temperatures for the day; a single outcome will be selected based on the official reported daily maximum.
The listed close time is TBD; the winning outcome is determined after the official daily maximum is published by the designated climate station. Resolution may occur once the NWS/NOAA daily summary is available and any official adjustments are applied.
Use climatology and past March variability to set baseline expectations (e.g., typical mild-to-warm conditions and sensitivity to cold fronts), but weigh recent model guidance and near-term observations more heavily for the specific March 10 forecast.
Key sources include the NWS Miami forecast discussion and official observations (ASOS/COOP reports), operational models (ECMWF, GFS), satellite/radar for cloud and precipitation trends, sea surface temperature analyses, and any regional weather alerts that indicate front passages or air-mass changes.