| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 77° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 78° to 79° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 80° to 81° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 82° to 83° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 84° to 85° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 86° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market tracks the official daily high temperature recorded in Miami, Florida, on April 6, 2026. It serves as a financial instrument for hedging against weather-related volatility or speculating on localized climate patterns.
April in Miami typically marks the transition from the dry season to the wetter, warmer months, characterized by moderate humidity and pleasant coastal temperatures. Historical data from the National Weather Service provides the baseline for typical daytime highs during this period. Variations in temperature are often driven by seasonal cold fronts, marine influence, and broader Atlantic weather patterns.
Market prices represent the collective expectation of traders regarding the likelihood of the temperature falling within specific ranges based on meteorological forecasts and historical climate trends.
The market typically relies on the official high temperature recorded by the National Weather Service at the Miami International Airport station.
Yes, localized weather phenomena like precipitation or cloud cover often suppress daily maximum temperatures, shifting the outcome toward lower ranges.
While climate change affects seasonal averages over decades, this market specifically tracks a single daily data point subject to short-term atmospheric variability.
In the event of sensor downtime, official records are usually reconstructed or validated by the National Weather Service, which then serves as the final settlement data.
The 'official high' is the confirmed measurement recorded at the end of the day, whereas a forecast is a speculative model prediction that can fluctuate until the event date.