| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 80° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 81° to 82° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 83° to 84° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 85° to 86° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 87° to 88° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 89° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market predicts the maximum daily temperature recorded in Miami, Florida, on April 19, 2026. It serves as a tool for participants to hedge against or speculate on localized climate variability and extreme weather events.
April in Miami marks the end of the dry season, characterized by transitionary spring weather with typically moderate humidity and increasing temperatures. Historical data from the National Weather Service provides a baseline for seasonal norms, though shifts in atmospheric patterns and localized oceanic temperatures can cause significant deviations from long-term averages. This market aggregates information from meteorological forecasts and climate models to estimate temperature thresholds.
Participants use this market to reflect collective expectations of weather patterns based on current meteorological data and climate trends. Movements in the market reflect shifting confidence in weather forecasts as the date approaches.
The official temperature is determined by the maximum daily temperature recorded at the Miami International Airport weather station.
No, the market is settled based strictly on the ambient air temperature, not the heat index or any wind chill adjustments.
April often sees variable weather as cold fronts from the north lose intensity before reaching Florida, creating a mix of cool, dry days and rapidly warming conditions.
The market utilizes official records provided by the National Weather Service; if data is missing or corrupted, standard industry protocols for data verification are applied.
Increasing average baseline temperatures in Florida over the last decade have generally shifted historical norms upward for many spring dates.