| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 79° to 80° | 11% | 12¢ | 17¢ | — | $9K | Trade → |
| 77° to 78° | 67% | 66¢ | 67¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
| 75° to 76° | 20% | 18¢ | 21¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| 74° or below | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 83° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 81° to 82° | 1% | 1¢ | 2¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
This market asks which predefined temperature outcome will be the highest air temperature recorded in Las Vegas on March 9, 2026. It matters because short-term temperature extremes affect energy demand, public health preparedness, and local operations.
Las Vegas sits in a desert basin where early March can swing between cool Pacific-influenced conditions and warm, dry ridging that produces rapid warming; year-to-year variability is common during the winter-to-spring transition. This event on KALSHI has six discrete outcomes and has attracted modest trading volume, so market prices may react strongly to new forecast information.
Market prices aggregate participant expectations about which outcome will occur and typically move as meteorological forecasts and observations evolve. Interpret prices as a real-time signal of collective judgment, remembering that low liquidity and late-breaking weather changes can cause rapid shifts.
Settlement uses the official highest air temperature recorded for the calendar date at the reporting station specified in the market rules; the event page lists the designated data source and any rounding or reporting conventions—consult those settlement details for the precise measurement definition.
The market close time is listed on the KALSHI event page (currently TBD); the outcome is determined after the March 9 observation period ends and the designated official source posts its final reported daily maximum per the market's settlement procedures.
The market is divided into six mutually exclusive temperature outcome bins defined on the event page; each outcome corresponds to a specific temperature range in the market description—refer to that listing to see the exact bins and their boundaries.
Track the evolution of upstream Pacific systems and the forecast upper-level pattern, any forecast frontal passages, model trends for strong downslope or warm-air advection events, and cloud/precipitation forecasts from the National Weather Service and high-resolution models, since these determine daytime heating potential.
The market follows the settlement source and tie-breaking rules stated in its official terms; if multiple reports exist, the designated authoritative station or dataset named in the rules is used and any rounding or finalization procedures described there are applied for settlement.