| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 73° or below | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $13K | Trade → |
| 74° to 75° | 1% | 0¢ | 2¢ | — | $11K | Trade → |
| 76° to 77° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| 78° to 79° | 2% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 82° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 80° to 81° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest air temperature recorded in Las Vegas on March 8, 2026 will be. It matters because it summarizes collective expectations about a specific weather outcome that can affect local activities, energy use, and planning.
Las Vegas in early March typically sits in the transition between winter and spring, so day-to-day highs can vary from cool to quite warm depending on the synoptic pattern. Short-term drivers such as passing cold fronts, strength and position of high-pressure ridges, and large-scale climate patterns influence a single-day high, while long-term warming trends alter baseline conditions over years to decades. The event date also coincides with the U.S. daylight‑saving time transition in 2026, which can affect how the measurement window is described in contract text.
Market odds reflect the collective assessment of which listed temperature outcome is most likely based on available forecasts and information; they update as new model runs and observations arrive. Treat market prices as a real-time signal of expectation and uncertainty, not as a fixed meteorological forecast or official observation.
The event contract specifies the official data source; typically the provider will use the primary National Weather Service or airport observation station for Las Vegas. Check the event description for the exact station identifier and data feed used for settlement.
The contract should state the timezone and handling of daylight‑saving transitions. Because March 8, 2026 is the DST start in the U.S., some settlement definitions explicitly reference local standard time, local official time, or UTC — always read the event rules to know which 24‑hour window or set of observations will be used.
Each outcome corresponds to the temperature bins or values defined on the event page; those cutoffs are listed in the contract. Review the event's outcome labels to see the precise ranges or exact temperatures that each outcome covers.
Short‑range model runs (e.g., global and mesoscale models), updated synoptic analyses, official NWS forecasts and advisories, and new surface observations all commonly influence market updates. Major shifts in model guidance or observed temperatures near the event date typically cause the largest price movement.
Long‑term warming shifts the baseline distribution of temperatures, which can subtly influence expectations, but this market is primarily driven by short‑term meteorology for the specific date. Consider both the immediate forecast drivers and the broader climatological context when interpreting market signals.