| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 67° to 68° | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $12K | Trade → |
| 69° to 70° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $10K | Trade → |
| 71° to 72° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| 66° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| 75° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 73° to 74° | 2% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature range will be the highest recorded in Las Vegas on March 7, 2026; it matters because daily maximum temperature affects energy demand, outdoor events, and local weather risk assessments.
Las Vegas sits in a hot, semi-arid region where early March temperatures can swing from cool to unseasonably warm depending on large-scale atmospheric patterns. Day-to-day outcomes are driven by synoptic weather systems (ridges, troughs, fronts) superimposed on a long-term warming trend that has raised baseline temperatures over decades.
Market prices reflect the crowd's evolving expectations about which temperature bin will occur and update as new model guidance and observations arrive; consult the contract text to understand exact settlement definitions and the official observation source.
Settlement will use the official highest temperature for March 7, 2026, as reported for the designated Las Vegas observation site named in the contract; check the market page for the exact station and data source (for example, the National Weather Service station specified in the contract).
The highest temperature is determined from the complete local calendar day (midnight to midnight local time) for March 7, and final settlement follows the timing and verification procedures spelled out in the Kalshi contract and market rules.
The six outcomes correspond to six mutually exclusive temperature ranges (bins) defined in the contract; each tradeable outcome covers a specific numeric interval—see the market description for the exact boundaries and whether endpoints are inclusive or exclusive.
Deterministic forecasts start giving useful signals about daily high temperatures about 3–5 days ahead, while ensemble and seasonal indicators can show broader tendencies earlier; expect forecast confidence to improve as March 7 approaches and model runs update.
Yes: the multi‑decadal warming trend raises the baseline probability of warmer outcomes over long periods, but the realized highest temperature on a single day is primarily determined by short‑term synoptic conditions; both background trends and immediate weather patterns matter for the eventual result.