| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 67° to 68° | 11% | 7¢ | 11¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| 62° or below | 1% | 1¢ | 2¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| 65° to 66° | 54% | 54¢ | 57¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| 69° to 70° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| 63° to 64° | 33% | 33¢ | 34¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 71° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
This market asks which of six outcomes will describe the highest temperature recorded in Las Vegas on March 6, 2026. It matters for traders and stakeholders exposed to short-term weather risk, such as energy demand, event planning, and agriculture.
Las Vegas has a desert climate and early March is a transitional month when temperatures can swing depending on large-scale weather patterns; warm Pacific ridging produces unseasonably high readings while inland troughs and cold fronts bring cooler conditions. Historical variability on early-March dates means forecasts several days out can change substantially as model runs evolve.
Market prices aggregate participants' views about which temperature range is most likely for that date and update as forecast models and observations change. Treat prices as a real-time reflection of consensus information, not a fixed forecast.
Settlement will use the official highest temperature for March 6, 2026 as reported by the designated data source named in the market contract (typically the National Weather Service/NOAA observation for the official Las Vegas station). Check the event page or contract for the exact station and data feed used for settlement.
The measure is the highest observation recorded during the local calendar date of March 6, 2026 at the official station (the 24-hour period from 00:00 to 23:59 local time for Las Vegas).
The six outcomes correspond to mutually exclusive temperature categories defined on this event's market page; consult the event listing to see the exact numeric cutoffs for each outcome because settlement will follow those specified ranges exactly.
Settlement follows the single official value reported by the designated data source; if ties or instrumentation issues arise, the market's published settlement rules and dispute procedures apply—refer to the contract terms on the event page.
Monitor short-range model guidance (e.g., 0–7 day ensembles), frontal timing and strength, satellite/cloud trends, local station observations near Las Vegas, and any advisories from the NWS—those signals typically drive the largest changes in expectations for the day’s high.