| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 62° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $9K | Trade → |
| 63° to 64° | 21% | 21¢ | 22¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| 65° to 66° | 59% | 58¢ | 59¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| 67° to 68° | 21% | 20¢ | 23¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 71° or above | 1% | 1¢ | 2¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| 69° to 70° | 1% | 1¢ | 2¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest air temperature recorded in Las Vegas on March 5, 2026 will be; it matters to traders who want to express views on short‑term weather outcomes and to anyone tracking local climate variability.
Las Vegas sits in a hot‑desert climate where day‑to‑day temperatures in early March can swing depending on large‑scale weather patterns. Seasonal context (late winter/early spring) and trends such as warming and urban heat island effects shape expectations but single‑day values remain driven primarily by transient weather systems and local conditions. Historical March variability means outcomes can range from cool, cloudy days to strong, sun‑driven warming events.
Market odds reflect collective expectations about which temperature range will be the daily maximum on the specified date; use them as a real‑time summary of participants' beliefs rather than as deterministic forecasts. For operational decisions, combine market information with official meteorological forecasts and station metadata.
Settlement typically relies on a named official observing station or dataset (for example an NWS/NOAA airport station); check the market's settlement rules or contract description for the exact source and any tie‑breaking rules.
The market page indicates the close time as TBD; the platform will announce a final trading close time and the settlement timing in advance—monitor the market page for updates and the posted settlement window after the observation date.
Look at multi‑year daily maximums for March 5, recent trends for early March, and the prior week’s temperature evolution; also review climatological normals, seasonal anomalies, and past synoptic setups that produced unusually warm or cool March days.
A cold front would tend to lower daytime highs by increasing cloud cover, advection of cooler air, and stronger mixing, while an offshore downslope wind can produce rapid warming and elevated maximums by compressional heating—both are common drivers of day‑to‑day extremes in the region.
Stations located near runways, pavements, or built‑up areas can record warmer daytime maxima than rural sites; review the specified settlement station and its siting/maintenance history because local heat‑island bias and instrumentation can affect the reported highest temperature.