| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 76° to 77° | 86% | 86¢ | 88¢ | — | $12K | Trade → |
| 74° to 75° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $9K | Trade → |
| 73° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $9K | Trade → |
| 78° to 79° | 12% | 12¢ | 13¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
| 80° to 81° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 82° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature bracket will be the highest recorded in Las Vegas on March 4, 2026; it matters because short-term weather extremes affect energy demand, outdoor events, and local operations. Market prices aggregate participants’ information about forecasts and observations leading up to that date.
Las Vegas weather in early March sits in a transitional season: synoptic-scale Pacific storms can still bring cool conditions, while occasional ridging and downslope warming produce anomalously warm days. The official temperature for the city is recorded at the designated observing station, and day-to-day outcomes can vary widely depending on the exact storm track and local wind patterns.
Odds in this market reflect the collective expectations of traders about which temperature range will occur, using incoming weather model outputs and real-time observations. They are indicators of consensus, not guarantees, and will evolve as forecasts and observations change.
Resolution typically uses the official NWS/NOAA observing station for Las Vegas (the primary airport surface observing site) and the final quality-controlled value as published by the National Weather Service or NCEI; consult the exchange’s published resolution rules for the precise source.
The event date refers to the local 24-hour calendar day at the official observing site: from 00:00 through 23:59 local time on March 4, 2026 (local standard time, since DST begins later in March).
The listed close time is currently TBD; traders should watch the exchange for the announced market close and any pre-close notices—market pricing will typically react to updated forecasts and observations in the days and hours before the close.
Exchanges normally follow a published resolution policy: they rely on the official post-quality-control dataset from the designated authority, and if that dataset is unavailable they may use a specified fallback (e.g., the nearest official station) or the exchange’s adjudication procedure; check the market’s resolution rules for exact handling.
Short-range NWP outputs (e.g., HRRR, NAM, and GFS updates), surface observations and station trends at the Las Vegas site, satellite imagery for cloud cover, and local NWS forecast discussions are all highly relevant in the 0–72 hour window before the date.