| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 84° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 85° to 86° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 87° to 88° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 89° to 90° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 91° to 92° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 93° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market tracks the official daily high temperature recorded at Harry Reid International Airport in Las Vegas on March 30, 2026. It serves as a derivative instrument for meteorological data, allowing participants to hedge against or speculate on specific climate outcomes.
Las Vegas is characterized by a desert climate, where spring temperatures can be highly volatile depending on the movement of high-pressure ridges or passing storm systems. Historical records for late March typically show a wide range of outcomes, reflecting the transition from winter to the intense heat of the summer months. Meteorologists often analyze Pacific oscillation patterns to project seasonal deviations from these long-term climate normals.
Market prices represent the aggregate expectation of traders regarding the likelihood of the daily high falling into specific temperature ranges based on current meteorological modeling and historical data.
The official daily high temperature is determined by the National Weather Service observations recorded at Harry Reid International Airport.
Official, verified corrections issued by the National Weather Service or the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) are used to resolve the market.
The lack of humidity in Las Vegas allows for rapid surface heating during the day and cooling at night, making daily high temperatures sensitive to minor changes in air mass.
No, the market concerns the official daily maximum temperature recorded at any point during the 24-hour period of March 30, 2026.
Late March serves as a benchmark for the onset of desert spring, often capturing the shift between stable winter air and the onset of convective weather patterns.