| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 73° to 74° | 98% | 98¢ | 100¢ | — | $10K | Trade → |
| 77° to 78° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $8K | Trade → |
| 75° to 76° | 2% | 0¢ | 2¢ | — | $8K | Trade → |
| 72° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| 81° or above | 3% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 79° to 80° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature range will be the highest recorded in Las Vegas on March 3, 2026; it matters for traders who want to hedge or speculate on short-term weather outcomes and for anyone tracking extreme-weather signals. The result is determined from the official meteorological observation for the Las Vegas reporting site specified in the market rules.
Las Vegas sits in a hot, arid basin where day-to-day maximum temperatures in early March can swing with the passage of Pacific storm systems, strengthening high pressure, or strong downslope winds. Seasonal transition means variability is larger than in mid-winter, and recent years of warmer-than-average conditions have shifted the baseline for daily highs. This market offers a short-duration bet that aggregates forecasts, observations, and trader expectations for a single calendar day.
Market prices reflect the collective expectation of which predefined temperature range will be the daily maximum on March 3, 2026, and they update as forecasts and observations change. Treat prices as real-time signals, not guarantees; check the market’s settlement rules and official data source for final determination.
Settlement follows the official reporting station named in the market’s rules—typically the National Weather Service observation for the Las Vegas area (the airport station); consult the market’s settlement/source clause for the exact station identifier.
The outcome uses the maximum temperature recorded during the local calendar day of March 3, 2026, as reported by the specified official station; local time boundaries (e.g., Pacific Time) and the station’s daily logging procedure determine the day span.
The market is split into six predefined temperature bins (ranges) that partition possible daily maxima; the exact numeric boundaries for each outcome are displayed on the market page and in the event description.
Long-term warming shifts the baseline and increases the frequency of higher temperatures, but a single-day highest temperature is primarily driven by short-term weather patterns; both background trend and immediate forecasts are relevant when forming a position.
Settlement follows the market’s official settlement rules and the designated data source; if the official source issues post-event corrections, the market’s rules specify whether corrected values or initial reports are used—traders should review those rules before trading.