| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 88° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 89° to 90° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 91° to 92° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 93° to 94° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 95° to 96° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 97° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which of six outcomes will correspond to the highest temperature recorded in Las Vegas on March 29, 2026. It matters because short-term weather extremes affect energy demand, event planning, and local operations.
Late March in Las Vegas is a seasonal transition period when synoptic-scale patterns can produce either cool spring-like days or unseasonably warm conditions; day-to-day swings are common. Long-term climate trends have shifted baseline temperatures upward, but individual daily maxima remain strongly driven by large-scale weather systems and local effects.
Market prices reflect traders’ aggregated expectations about which temperature outcome will occur, synthesizing climatology, real‑time forecasts, and risk preferences. Use prices as a real‑time signal of market consensus, not as fixed probabilities.
The event page lists the close as TBD; settlement typically occurs after the official highest temperature for March 29 (local calendar day) is available and per the exchange’s published settlement rules—check the market page for the exchange’s final timeline.
Settlement usually relies on the official National Weather Service observing station designated for Las Vegas (the ASOS at Harry Reid International Airport unless the market specifies another station); confirm the exact station in the market’s settlement rules.
The six outcomes correspond to the specific temperature ranges or discrete values listed on the market page; they are mutually exclusive by design, and the market will pay out the single outcome that matches the official recorded highest temperature according to the event’s settlement definition.
Conditions that favor a high reading include a strong high‑pressure ridge over the region, warm advection from the south or southwest, clear skies with strong daytime insolation, downslope warming winds, and dry surface conditions that reduce evaporative cooling.
Use climatology for late March to set a baseline, note longer‑term warming trends for context, and then monitor short‑range numerical weather prediction guidance and ensemble spreads as the date approaches; official NWS forecasts and local observations closer to March 29 will be most informative.