| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 88° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 89° to 90° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 91° to 92° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 93° to 94° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 95° to 96° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 97° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the single highest air temperature observed in Las Vegas will be on March 28, 2026; it matters to traders who want to express views on short-term weather outcomes and to users tracking weather-related risk for events, travel, and energy demand.
Late March in Las Vegas sits in a transitional season: springtime synoptic patterns can produce anything from cool, cloudy conditions to strong, warm ridging. Large-scale drivers such as the Pacific jet stream, ENSO-related tendencies, and transient troughs or ridges strongly affect day-to-day temperature variability in the region. The official measurement location and exact measurement window specified in the contract determine the value used for settlement.
Market prices aggregate traders' collective expectations about the eventual, observed maximum temperature; they update as new model guidance and observations arrive. Use prices as a real-time signal of consensus, not as a guaranteed forecast—always cross-check the contract's official source and timing before trading.
The contract definition specifies the official observing station, measurement type, and the local time window used to determine the maximum; read the market's settlement specification—if unspecified, markets typically rely on the National Weather Service daily maximum at the official airport station.
Settlement depends on the market's stated source and timing; commonly the official daily maximum is taken from the National Weather Service or another named climate-summary product and will be published after the local observation day—check the market page for the exact source and settlement timeline.
Use historical climatology as a baseline for what's typical and to quantify how unusual a given forecast would be; combine that background with current-year model guidance and recent trends to assess how likely deviations from typical conditions are for this date.
Watch deterministic and ensemble model output (ECMWF, GFS, regional ensembles), short-range high-resolution models (HRRR/NAM) for day-of timing, the NWS Las Vegas forecast discussions, satellite and radar observations for cloud/precipitation trends, and official surface observations from the contract's reporting station.
Rapid shifts include an unexpected frontal passage or deepening trough bringing clouds and cooler air, the development of strong high pressure producing rapid warming, or abrupt changes in cloud cover or wind direction; such shifts often show up first in short-range models and observations and can move the market quickly.