| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 88° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 89° to 90° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 91° to 92° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 93° to 94° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 95° to 96° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 97° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest air temperature recorded in Las Vegas will be on March 27, 2026. It matters for traders and stakeholders who want to hedge or speculate on near-term weather extremes that can affect energy demand, outdoor events, and local logistics.
Las Vegas sits in the Mojave Desert, where late-March temperatures can swing from cool to unseasonably warm depending on large-scale weather patterns. Seasonal climatology, short-term synoptic features (frontal passages, high-pressure ridging, or warm advection), and longer-term trends such as regional warming all influence day-to-day extremes.
Market odds reflect collective expectations about the official, observed maximum temperature for that calendar date as reported by the market's designated authoritative data source. Interpret prices as a real-time summary of traders' assessments of which outcome will match the official reported high, not as a guaranteed forecast.
The market will settle using the designated authoritative report for Las Vegas on that date—typically the official daily maximum temperature published by the National Weather Service/NOAA station associated with Las Vegas (the airport climate station). Check the market page for the exact settlement data source.
Resolution occurs after the authoritative source publishes the official daily maximum for March 27; the market page will note the settlement timing. Traders should expect resolution once the official daily climate summary is available and any specified verification window has passed.
If the primary station data are missing or flagged, the market will follow its predefined contingency rules, which commonly use alternative official nearby stations or post-event quality-controlled summaries; consult the market's rules on the event page for the exact fallback procedures.
Forecast models and operational forecasts influence trader expectations as they update with new observations; synoptic changes such as an approaching front or a strengthening ridge can shift expectations quickly in the 48–72 hours before the date.
Use historical seasonal behavior to set a baseline expectation (how late-March highs typically behave in Las Vegas) but weigh it against current-season anomalies and active forecast guidance, since single-day extremes are often driven by transient weather systems rather than long-term averages.