| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 89° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 90° to 91° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 92° to 93° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 94° to 95° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 96° to 97° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 98° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature range will be the highest recorded in Las Vegas on March 26, 2026. It matters because short-term weather variation and longer-term climate trends both influence outcomes that affect energy demand, outdoor activities, and local planning.
Late March is a transitional period in the Mojave Desert: conditions can range from cool, unsettled weather driven by Pacific storms to warm, sun-dominated days under ridging. Interannual variability is large, and a long-term warming trend can shift the distribution of daily highs upward compared with past decades. Short-term synoptic patterns in the days leading up to March 26 will be the dominant determinant of the realized temperature.
Market odds aggregate trader expectations about which temperature bin will occur; they reflect collective judgment based on forecasts and observations rather than a single expert. Use the market prices as a realtime signal of consensus and update that view as official forecasts and observations change.
The market page will show the official close time; this listing currently shows the close as TBD. Typically, markets for a same-day weather outcome close before the observation window begins, so check the event page for the finalized close time.
Resolution will use the authoritative observational source specified in the contract text on the market page (for example, a designated NWS/ASOS/AWOS station). Consult the event description to find the instrument/station ID and the official time window that will be used for the record.
Each of the six outcomes corresponds to a predefined temperature range (a bin); the exact numeric boundaries for those bins are listed on the market page. Review the outcome labels before trading to understand which temperatures each outcome represents.
Historical late-March climatology provides a baseline expectation, but it should be combined with current model forecasts and recent observations. Climatology helps gauge whether an outcome would be typical or anomalous, while short-term forecasts indicate likely departures from that baseline.
Prices tend to respond to updates from operational forecast models, National Weather Service forecasts and statements, local meteorologists, and new surface and satellite observations—traders incorporate these data as they become available.