| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 91° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 92° to 93° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 94° to 95° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 96° to 97° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 98° to 99° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 100° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature outcome will be recorded as the highest temperature in Las Vegas on March 25, 2026; it matters for weather traders, planners, and anyone tracking short-term climate variability in the Las Vegas area. The market’s outcomes represent discrete temperature bands for that specific date.
Late March in Las Vegas is a transitional period with strong interannual variability: some years feature cool spring surges while others already show warm, early-summer conditions. Long-term warming trends have shifted seasonal baselines upward, but day-to-day results remain driven by synoptic-scale weather patterns and local mesoscale effects.
Market prices summarize participants’ collective expectations about which temperature band will be the highest on that date; they update as new observational data and forecast model runs arrive. For the final outcome, traders should consult the market rules to see which official observing station and dataset will be used to determine the winner.
The market close time is listed as TBD; the winning outcome will be determined after the date passes using the official daily maximum reported by the station specified in the market rules. Check the market page for any announced close time and the post-event settlement window.
The market uses the official observing station or dataset named in its rules—commonly the primary National Weather Service climatological station for the Las Vegas area (e.g., the primary airport station). Confirm the exact station or dataset in the market’s rule text before trading.
'Highest temperature' refers to the daily maximum air temperature as reported by the official observing station under the station’s standard reporting procedures. The precise measurement method (instantaneous sensor reading, automated 1-minute or hourly reporting) follows the observing network’s protocols and is detailed in the market rules.
If the designated station data are missing or disputed, the market will follow the contingency and arbitration procedures in its rules—typically using a substitute nearby official station, quality-controlled provisional data, or an adjudication process. Review the settlement and dispute clause for the exact fallback steps.
Late model runs showing the onset or delay of a Pacific trough, rapid development of strong upper-level ridging, the arrival of a frontal passage, or sudden shifts in cloud-cover and wind forecasts (including downslope warming) are the primary drivers that can shift expectations in the 48–72 hours before the target date.