| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 94° to 95° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 98° to 99° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 92° to 93° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 91° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 96° to 97° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature range will be the highest measured in Las Vegas on March 24, 2026; it matters for traders who want to express views on short-term weather variations and for users hedging temperature-sensitive exposure. Accurate settlement depends on a clearly defined observing station and time window.
Late March in Las Vegas falls in early spring when day-to-day temperatures can swing depending on the position of Pacific storm systems and interior ridging; seasonal climate patterns and recent synoptic trends in the weeks leading up to the date set the backdrop. Local measurement practices (airport ASOS/AWOS, municipal stations) and any designation by the market operator determine which recorded value will be used at settlement.
Market odds reflect the collective expectations of traders about the official observed maximum temperature on that calendar date; interpret prices as the market’s consensus about which outcome will be the official highest reading, not a guaranteed forecast.
Settlement will use the official data source and definition specified in the event rules; check the event page for which station (for example, the designated airport or municipal meteorological station) and how the 'highest temperature' is defined (reporting interval and local date bounds).
The market close time is listed on the event page (currently TBD); settlement typically occurs after the official daily observation for March 24 is published and any post-publication review or dispute window has elapsed according to the platform’s rules.
The event’s settlement documentation should state the measurement convention; if not specified, assume the platform will rely on the standard reporting practice of the designated observing network (for example, automated surface observing systems) and confirm with the event rules or support.
Synoptic model guidance begins to gain reliability around 3–7 days out for large-scale patterns that affect Las Vegas; shorter-term mesoscale forecasts and observations in the 48 hours before March 24 will typically have the largest influence on traders’ views.
Microclimates matter for experiential temperature but settlement uses the designated official station’s observation; differences between neighborhood readings and the official site can exist, so confirm which station’s measurement governs the market outcome.