| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 94° to 95° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 96° to 97° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 92° to 93° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 100° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 91° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 98° to 99° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest air temperature recorded in the Las Vegas official observing station will be on March 23, 2026. It matters for weather-sensitive planning, short-term trading, and tracking seasonal/climate variability in a major desert metro area.
Late March in Las Vegas sits in a spring transition period when temperatures can swing between cool, storm-influenced days and clear, warm conditions. Large-scale patterns (Pacific storm tracks, ridging) tend to drive most of the day-to-day variability, while local factors like urban heat island effects modulate the observed maximum. Multi-decadal warming has shifted the baseline climate, so traders often combine seasonal climatology with near-term forecasts.
Market prices represent the collective view of traders about which temperature range is most likely to contain the observed daily maximum; interpret them as a consensus signal that combines model forecasts, observations, and participants' information. Prices change as new forecast information arrives and as traders update beliefs before settlement.
The event page lists 'Closes: TBD' so check the KALSHI market for the exact trading close; the observation window for the highest temperature is the local calendar date for March 23, 2026 (local Pacific time, 00:00–23:59) unless the market rules specify a different interval.
Settlement is based on the highest air temperature recorded at the designated official observing station for the Las Vegas metro as specified in the market rules; the rules also state any rounding, tie‑breaking, and which instrument or report is authoritative.
The six outcomes correspond to mutually exclusive temperature ranges (bins) that together cover the plausible values for the day's maximum; a single outcome pays if the recorded maximum falls within that outcome's range, per the market's settlement rules.
The market will use the authoritative observing source named in the event rules—typically the National Weather Service/NOAA official station for Las Vegas; the event page specifies the exact source used for settlement and procedures for data issues.
Watch medium- and short-range numerical model guidance (e.g., ECMWF and GFS), ensemble spreads, surface temperature forecasts, synoptic charts for ridging or incoming systems, cloud and precipitation forecasts, and local observations as the date approaches because forecast confidence typically improves in the 48–72 hours before the event.