| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 97° to 98° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 99° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 91° to 92° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 95° to 96° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 90° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 93° to 94° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest temperature recorded in Las Vegas on March 22, 2026 will be and why that matters to traders and weather-sensitive decision makers. Daily peak temperature affects energy demand, outdoor event planning, and short-term economic activity in the region.
Las Vegas sits in a hot, dry desert basin with large day-to-night swings and strong sensitivity to large-scale air masses; late March is a transition period when the city can see either cool Pacific-influenced systems or early-season warm spells. Recent years have shown increasing variability in daily extremes, but the exact outcome for any given date depends on the synoptic pattern and local effects rather than trend alone.
Market prices represent the collective market expectation for which discrete outcome will contain the highest temperature on that day and change as forecasts and new information arrive. Interpret them as a real-time consensus signal that updates with model guidance, observations, and trader information, not as a fixed prediction.
Resolution follows the market's contract specification; in practice that typically means the official NOAA/NWS/airport observing station designated in the contract (the primary Las Vegas automated station) and its daily maximum after any post-event quality control. Check the exchange's resolution rules for the exact station identifier.
Most contracts use the local calendar day for the designated observing station (00:00 through 23:59 local time). Confirm the market's resolution terms in case a different window is specified.
The exchange's resolution procedures govern these cases; commonly the market uses the official corrected daily maximum from the NWS, and if the primary station data are unavailable, predefined alternatives such as nearby official stations or post-processed datasets are used. Consult the event's rulebook for exact tie-breakers and fallback methods.
Key drivers are the passage or absence of Pacific frontal systems, the presence of strong ridging aloft, surface wind patterns (including downslope warming), cloud cover and daytime solar heating, and snowpack or soil moisture influencing near-surface temperatures.
Track medium- and short-range guidance (operational and ensemble models), high-resolution regional runs for day-of detail, National Weather Service forecasts and discussions, and real-time satellite/upper-air observations. Pay attention to forecast consistency and any shifts in timing or strength of systems as the date approaches.